Modelling monetary transmission in UK manufacturing industry

This paper studies the transmission of monetary policy to industrial output in the UK. In order to capture asymmetries, a system of threshold equations is considered. However, unlike previous research, endogenous threshold parameters are allowed to be different for each equation. This approach is consistent with economic intuition and is shown to be of tangible importance after suitable econometric evaluation. Results show evidence of cross-sectional differences across industries and asymmetries in some sectors. These findings contribute to the debate about the importance of alternative economic theories to explain these asymmetries and support the use of a sectorally disaggregated approach to the analysis of monetary transmission

Field evidence of social influence in the expression of political preferences: the case of secessionist flags in Barcelona

Different models of social influence have explored the dynamics of social contagion, imitation, and diffusion of different types of traits, opinions, and conducts. However, few behavioral data indicating social influence dynamics have been obtained from direct observation in `natural' social contexts. The present research provides that kind of evidence in the case of the public expression of political preferences in the city of Barcelona, where thousands of citizens supporting the secession of Catalonia from Spain have placed a Catalan flag in their balconies. We present two different studies. 1) In July 2013 we registered the number of flags in 26% of the the city. We find that there is a large dispersion in the density of flags in districts with similar density of pro-independence voters. However, we find that the density of flags tends to be fostered in those electoral district where there is a clear majority of pro-independence vote, while it is inhibited in the opposite cases. 2) During 17 days around Catalonia's 2013 National Holiday we observed the position at balcony resolution of the flags displayed in the facades of 82 blocks. We compare the clustering of flags on the facades observed each day to equivalent random distributions and find that successive hangings of flags are not independent events but that a local influence mechanism is favoring their clustering. We also find that except for the National Holiday day the density of flags tends to be fostered in those facades where there is a clear majority of pro-independence vote.Comment: 27 pages, 13 figures, 2 table

Croatian parliamentary elections 2016: voters reject the centre-left’s tilt to the right

Croatia held a parliamentary election on 11 September, its second election in the space of a year following the country’s previous election in November 2015. Tena Prelec and Stuart Brown write that the results were a blow for Croatia’s Social Democrats, who had hoped to win the largest share of support but ended up in second place behind the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ). The elections have left a fragmented picture and may once again make it difficult for a stable governing coalition to emerge

Maria Spirova: “Party politics in Bulgaria has become completely nonsensical”

Bulgaria will hold parliamentary elections on 5 October following the resignation of the Bulgarian government in July. In an interview with LSEE’s Tena Prelec and EUROPP’s editor Stuart Brown, Maria Spirova discusses the protests which have taken place in Bulgaria since 2013, the party politics of the country, and the bank crisis which underpinned the resignation of the government. Stay tuned: the second part of the interview will be published next week

Scenarios of a new UK-EU relationship: a ‘Bremain’

What consequences will Britain’s EU referendum have for both the UK and the rest of Europe? In a series of papers published as a collaboration between EUROPP and CIDOB (the Barcelona Centre for International Affairs), LSE authors analyse the prospects for three scenarios – a Bremain, a ‘soft’ Brexit and a ‘harsh’ Brexit. Stuart Brown and Tena Prelec assess what would happen if the UK votes to remain. The full papers are available here

An election propelled by academia? Blurring the lines between political science and politics in Spain

The Spanish general election has proven to be fertile ground for interactions between politics and academia. Tena Prelec and Stuart Brown single out two phenomena that have developed in Spain over recent years: the progressive engagement of precariously-paid junior scholars in politics, and a thriving community of young academic commentators which supplements, and in some cases supplants, the work of the mainstream media. They note that the contribution of both groups has already improved the nature of the public debate in Spain, but ask whether this blurring of the lines between politics and academia may prove problematic in the long run

Croatian elections: a final look at the parties and the campaign

Croatia will hold a parliamentary election on 8 November. Ahead of the vote, Tena Prelec and Stuart Brown take a final look at the election campaign, providing an overview of the country’s party system, the latest polling, and some of the key contextual factors that could play a role in determining the outcome

Toros de lidia : breves apuntes históricos y descriptivos de las ganaderías bravas de España, Portugal y América

Copia digital. Valladolid : Junta de Castilla y León. Consejería de Cultura y Turismo, 201

Protección arancelaria en la Restauración : un debate Antonio Tena-Daniel Tirado

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